Latest Issue:
The Agenda #22
Summer 2008


Dropout Factories

November 1, 2007 (Blog)

Forty-five percent of entering freshmen at Central High School reach their senior year, according to a new Johns Hopkins University study cited today by the Providence Journal's newsblog. Four other Rhode Island high schools also made a list of "dropout factories"—that is, schools which "retain 60 percent or less of their students to senior [year]."

Taking a broader view, ProJo's story tells us that nationwide, about 1700 out of 13,748 high schools are dropout factories. Some of the study's other "central findings" are enlightening, if not surprising:


  • Nearly half of our nation’s African American students, nearly 40% of Latino students, and only 11% of white students attend high schools in which graduation is not the norm.

  • Between 1993 and 2002, the number of high schools with the lowest levels of success in promoting freshmen to senior status on time (a strong correlate of high dropout and low graduation rates) increased by 75%, compared with only an 8% increase in the total number of high schools.

  • There are currently between 900 and 1,000 high schools in the country in which graduating is at best a 50/50 proposition. In 2,000 high schools, a typical freshman class shrinks by 40% or more by the time the students reach their senior year. This represents nearly one in five regular or vocational high schools in the U.S. that enroll 300 or more students.

  • A majority minority high school is five times more likely to have weak promoting power (promote 50% or fewer freshmen to senior status on time) than a majority white school.

  • Poverty appears to be the key correlate of high schools with weak promoting power. Majority minority high schools with more resources (e.g., selective programs, higher per pupil expenditures, suburban location) successfully promote students to senior status at the same rate as majority white schools.

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